PREMIERSHIP 2012/13 - A Forecast

The start to the 2012/2013 Premiership season has begun in the same surprising vein as the Olympics departed in – the epic hype, an escalating budget, and the weather forecast predicting doomsday levels of precipitation; somehow producing an Olympics which was, well... superb (how very un-British! We’re far more comfortable when things are just a little bit crap (see British Leyland)).

With this in mind, followers of certain clubs will certainly be feeling content with their inauguration; the likes of QPR and Norwich both slumping to heavy opening day defeats. Conversely Swansea City fans will be rather embarrassed by their start... how crass it is to win in such style.

Having studied the prospective squads, and taken account of the differing fortunes of the competing entities thus far, I have formulated my prediction for the coming season and my rationale behind the irrational.

      

Here's how the top of the table could have turned out (until I predicted it) (the rest of the table can be found in my subsequent blogs so keep an eye out for your side) : -

Position	Club
C	Manchester City
2	Manchester United
3	Chelsea
4	Liverpool
5	Arsenal
6	Everton
7	Tottenham Hotspur
8	Newcastle United

MANCHESTER CITY

Roberto Mancini may have an English vocabulary comparative to Tinky-Winky, but he’s certainly grasped the English art of moaning; most of his summer frustration aimed at Sporting Director, Brian Marwood, over the lack of transfer activity - Marwood proving a rather safer target than chairman, and signatory, Khaldoon al Mubarak.

Despite the whinging, City have a wealth of talent; the confidence that comes from being incumbent champions; and have still spent in excess of £10m on Jack Rodwell. In addition, there were further acquisitions on transfer deadline day; including, Fiorentina’s Nastasic, and the completion of Scott Sinclair’s protracted transfer from Swansea. The picturesque Carlos Tevez has also returned to Manchester (once the air-stewardess and Zabaleta finally persuaded him to get up out of his seat) and has started superbly; picking up the opener in City’s tussle with Southampton, and the equaliser against Liverpool last weekend.

With all these factors in mind, it’s difficult to see past City in the 2012/2013 race for the title... The strength in depth and ability to spend in January if required, meaning that City will doubtless be the bookies favourites.

Their rivals will be focusing on their weaknesses though – City’s play can be rather one dimensional at times; narrow and patient, yet there were times last season when City fans were crying out for plan b (though I’m not 100% sure what his unique amalgamation of song and rap could have done to influence events). The departure of Adam Johnson to Sunderland could possibly highlight the lack of natural width further, as well as highlight Mancini’s single minded approach.

MANCHESTER UNITED

Manchester City’s rivals from just across the Atlantic could well prove to be their sternest on field test. The Manchester Red Devils have added to last year’s roster by drafting offenseman RVP (as their Designated Player (probably)), quarterback Kagawa, cornerback Buttner, and rookies Powell and Henriquez.

At certain stages of last season, Rooney’s points (goals and assists) carried United, and winningest Head Coach, Sir Alex Ferguson, will be hoping that Van Persie can ease this burden by repeating the stats that saw him earn the “Rocket” Richard Trophy in the 2011/2012 season. 

In addition, Kagawa can not only sell condominiums full of jerseys in the Far East (site of a great US victory between 1955 & 1975), he has also proved in pre-season that he has an eye for a pass; and therefore that he could be the creative spark in the neutral zone that United have missed in the past few seasons.

Kagawa got his full debut as The Reds went 0 & 1 in a disappointing opening match-up with the Toffees; a soccer match dominated by Fellaini. The Reds did recover against Full-Ham however, and new signings RVP and Kagawa netted in a 3 to 2 win; RVP’s dunk an awesome volley from just inside the 18 yard line. The win was however marred by a bogus injury to strong-arm centre, Rooney. 3 league points so far but more to come...

After all, United struggled in certain regular season fixtures last year, as well as all 4 knock-out trophies; and this was at least in part due to lacking the marquee names in the first line - no one doubted the squad as a whole, but the 1st team didn't match-up against some of their rivals. It’s clear though that RVP and Kagawa strengthen that team sheet substantially; and with the rookies to bed in, defensive lineman Ferdinand and Evans to return, United are almost certain to improve. Expect to see Fergie’s men in league contention right up to the wire... before 2 overtime markers deny them. O-M-G, enough already!

CHELSEA

If you’re an expensive foreign footballer, you’ve been linked with and/or signed for Chelsea during the summer break: - Hulk, a pair of Hazards, Schurrle, Dempsey, Azpilicueta, Van Der Wiel, Falcao, Marin, Oscar... Santi Munez. Which of these names has actually signed on the dotted line is known only by Mr Abramovich; we can safely assume Roberto Di Matteo had nothing to do with it.

I have seen Eden Hazard run out for Chelsea though, and very impressive he has been too – directly contributing to 5 of Chelsea’s 8 goals so far this season – leading to whispers around the Bridge that only Eden Hazard’s ego is greater than his ability.

Despite huge concerns over the lack of options at centre forward following the departures of Drogba and Lukaku, a factor that I predict will prevent them actually winning the title this season, their squad does look strong and therefore they can’t be written off entirely.

 In addition, their ploy of playing more games than all the other Premier League teams looks on paper to be bomb-proof; they already find themselves 3 points clear having implemented this.

LIVERPOOL
Former football team Liverpool, have once again changed their management in the hope that their mediocre squad miraculously grow perms and tashes, slip into some tiny shorts, and relive the 80’s. Brendan Rodgers the latest man through the revolving door at Anfield; an alarming choice of entrance given the area’s reputation.

Having started abysmally against West Brom; losing 3 nil! Rodgers’ philosophy of ticky-tacky football was far more evident against City last weekend. Obviously their display was no Barcelona or Swansea, but the performances of Joe Allen and Raheem Sterling will be very encouraging to the scouse faithful.

Unfortunately however, the change of mind-set was also Liverpool’s eventual downfall against City; Skrtel gifting a back-pass to the lovable Tevez when attempting to retain possession.

IF Rodgers can instil his beliefs into the playing staff, Liverpool fans can expect to see some entertaining football at Anfield this year; and finally see some better results. I personally think they’re some way adrift of the aforementioned 3 outfits and are therefore locked in a battle for that precious 4^th place spot and Champions League qualification - especially given the lack of players into the club this summer, when compared to the exodus out.

It's likely to be a ‘do or die’ season for Liverpool, expect to see them either riding high or in no-mans land. Personally, I anticipate them shaking off their poor recent form and excelling under Rodgers' guidance... just not this year.

ARSENAL

Returning to my theory that Brits are happiest when things are mediocre, there must be every chance that Arsenal fans are the most content individuals in the country. After a somewhat lacklustre performance against Sunderland on the opening day, in which they created very little, Wenger’s much changed outfit took the Megabus (there are other bus services available) to Stoke-on-Trent. The outcome of their 2^nd fixture was a similarly flat performance. In fact the majority of the action was on the terraces, where t-shirts had been printed up by Stoke City fans mocking the Arsenal boss, and sporadically throughout the 90 minutes both sets of fans did the ‘Wenger’ – an exaggerated shrug/arm wave that is sure to be a dance-floor sensation. 

So, two games into the new season and two nil-nil draws against mid table sides; hardly top 4 form. There are positives for Wenger to take though; defending has become Arsenal’s Achilles Heel over the past few seasons, yet the usually fragile back five have yet to concede a goal. In addition, new boy Santi Cazorla has been very tidy in possession, as you’d expect from a Spanish attacking midfielder, and given time to gel with the other new bodies around him, could prove to be Arsenal’s pivotal player.

It cannot go unmentioned however, that Arsenal have allowed another key figure to leave the dressing room. Following the departures of Adebayor, Toure, Clichy, and Nasri to Premiership rivals; and Fabrgas and Song to Barcelona; last season’s top marksman Van Persie has now said a frosty farewell to the Emirates and signed for Manchester United - If the opening games are anything to go by, RVP will be much missed... Giroud. Donkey. Arse. Banjo... spring to mind.

The lack of goal threat, and the general slump in club morale, is the reason I feel Arsenal will finally miss out on Champions League qualification this season - following on-field failure expect to see Arsenal Holdings PLC employ numerous overpaid consultants before deciding there's more money to be made in other market sectors.

EVERTON

True to form The Toffees have had a slow start to the new season; taking a full 57 minutes to find the back of United’s net in a 1- 0 win - The scorer, 8’ 5” Side Show Bob doppelganger, Marouane Fellaini.  The result was no more than Everton deserved from a dogged, well organised display in which the aforementioned Fellaini tormented the Red Devils.

This form was then carried into last weekend’s game at Villa Park, in which Moyes’ men took apart a hapless Aston Villa. Evertonians could barely believe their eyes as their side cruised to a 3 goal advantage at half time; the pick of the goals a ‘worldy’ (appealing to the lowest common denominator there) from Pienaar. So impressive was the first half performance that the usually dower David Moyes pointed out to the BBC that, “I don’t think you’ll have enough viewing time to show all the chances [that were created in the first half]”. 

With Fellaini in such rampant form, Pienaar reinstalled on a permanent basis, and a number of 11th hour deals on deadline day, things are looking rosy in the blue corner of Stanley Park. In addition, the possible resolution of a long standing centre forward scarcity means for the first time since Cadamarteri, Jeffers, Ferguson, and Madar, Everton commence the season with a number of available and/or quality centre forwards at the club; see Jelavic, Naismith, Miralles, Vellios, and Anichebe (I must stress the “available and/or quality”).

I have predicted a final position of 6^th but given the scouser’s ‘form’ there’s every chance they’ll steal a position higher up.

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

Player’s Manager of the Year nominee Andre Villas Boas has taken over the Tottenham reins from the squeaky clean, Droopy the Dog impersonator ‘Arry Redknapp. Unfortunately for AVB, the team’s inauspicious start has already forced hoards of fans onto the phone-in’s to question Mr Levy’s pick.

The opener was a 2 – 1 defeat at the hands of Les Geordies, and game 2 a goalless home draw with an un-fancied WBA side.

In spite of these flat results, and the concerns of numerous fans about Modric’s departure and AVB’s arrival, I believe like last year Spurs will again push hard but probably finish just shy of Champions League qualification. Multiple deals on the final day, including the purchase of Lloris, and Dempsey (proven international players), can only solidify Spurs as a top 4 chasing side, but I'm afraid I too remain unconvinced by AVB’s management style. An essential part of modern club management entails the motivation, and extraction of respect from, the overpaid egomaniacs that call themselves the playing staff (despite the fact the majority never play and thus have yet to achieve anything in life); however, I’m dubious of AVB’s ability to shine in this department (see Chelsea). He may well have an astute knowledge of international football and tactics, but will he provide the right guidance to propel Spurs? I doubt it...

NEWCASTLE UNITED

Given that magpies are so partial to shiny objects, Newcastle have been alarmingly profligate; their last piece of silverware the Fairs Cup in 1969. Despite a sterling performance last season and a solid start to this; a 2 - 1 home win against fellow 4th place aspirer's Tottenham Hotspur the highlight; it's a certainty that Newcastle United will be without the illusive league title for a further year.

This comment is however worthless, as Pardew's Foreign Legion will be aiming for European qualification primarily; with potential for success in a domestic cup competition.

The squad has been strengthened slightly by the acquisitions of Anita et al; but their great transfer success has been the retention of Ba, Tiote, Cisse and  Coloccini. Though Cisse is unlikely to repeat his stunning form of last season, there is no doubt that in their two Senegalese forwards Newcastle have two of the best in the business. The aforementioned names will surely fire the Magpies to another respectable season; though I predict the wave of momentum that carried them to near Champions League qualification will not be repeated this term.

Thanks for reading

BC

@BobbyCowsill

Facebook group, "if that had gone in it would have been a goal"

http://www.facebook.com/groups/262906063816351/

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THE ROUND UP (12 July 2012)

I must begin by offering my insincere apologies for the lack of topical football based literature released on this blog over the past fortnight. The excuse being that I have been indulging in my other great passion (no, no!); music! The concoction of having to splurge a briefcase full of cash on grossly overpriced drinks, stand on tip-toes until my calf muscles spontaneously combust, and having to snorkel through the mud/overflowing sewage cocktail, takes some time to oust from the system. For those of you who are interested, or feigning interest (the group in which the Portuguese national football side provide their life lessons), my latest escapade took me to the undisputed home of music to scream along with seminal indie outfit The Stone Roses.     

(hoggers!)

During the aforementioned realisation of my dream, Spain were busy realising their own; namely lifting the The Henri Delaunay Trophy aloft for the second consecutive time. The one sided final eventually culminating in a 4-0 defeat for the scandal tarnished Italians... for the record, there were no peculiar own goals, no sliced penalty kicks, and no suspicious sending off’s (in minutes ending in ‘6’ or otherwise) as was envisaged in my “Group C” blog of June 17.

    

What was foreseen however was much of the reminder of the tournament - the Spanish victory itself; England captivating their audience for the obligatory 2 out of the 4 weeks; the Dutch implosion; Balotelli’s numerous childlike tantrums; the French bowing out ungracefully; the UEFA endorsed camera-persons (probably men) filming virile female fans rather than the football; and sadly, the unsavoury scenes off the pitch. Europe, in hindsight, could have saved itself a great deal of fortune, and the majority of us, avoided much heartache. Still, it did give us Europeans something to focus on other than finances; and on a personal level, I didn’t have to watch the insufferable ‘deal or no deal’ for an entire month.

The ease at which Spain brushed aside Italy and once again proved to be Europe’s premier football team was breathtaking. Their unparalleled pool of talent perhaps most evident when you scrutinized the absentees from their European Championship final starting XI – most notably, Chelski duo Juan Mata and Fernando Torres; Athletic’s Manchester United tormentors, Fernando Llorente, Iker Muniain and Javi Martinez; and Barcelona’s injured twosome of Carles Puyol and David Villa.

This further triumph by Spain, begs the question, “are they the best national team ever?”. As exponents of pass and move (tiki-taka) football they are surely unrivalled, but defensively, and in terms of cutting edge, they have occasionally been questioned. Consider then the following entities as possible alternatives: -

• World Cup 1970 winning Brazil – Pele, Carlos Alberto, Jairzinho, Tostao, Gerson, & Rivelino; need I say more! (see below)

• Rinus Michels ‘Totaalvoetball’ Netherlands team of 1974  - despite losing the World Cup final to rivals Deutschland; Cruyff, Haan, Rep, van Hanegam & co, changed the landscape of football forever (Spain are mere copy-cats).

(Great football team, but most importantly; a quite fabulous kit)

• France 1998 to 2000 – blessed with talent such as Zizou, Terry Henry, and the eternal Thuram; and benefactors of Monsieur Barthez's lucky slaphead; the French were bound to capture the World Cup in ’98 and the European Championships of ’00.

• Berti Vogts’ Scotland of 2002 – 2004. Herr Vogts’ Scotland began with a solid 5 nil defeat at the hands of France, and went on to achieve numerous other credible results; the most memorable were as follows: - South Korea (1  – 4), Faroe Islands (2 – 2), Holland (0 -6), Wales (0 -4), Hungary (0 – 3), Moldova (1 – 1), and home defeat to Norway.

(Andy Selva - scorer of THE winning
San Marino goal - canonized in '02)

• That special San Marino side of 28 April 2004 that scored a genuine, real-life, actual, valid, undeniable, goal against Liechtenstein... and went onto claim their only ever victory!

• 11 April 2001 ‘Socceroos’ – this VB/XXXX powered Aussie outfit pipped American Somoa 31 – 0 during 2002 FIFA World Cup Qualification.

TRANSFER PORTION

As well as evidencing the quality of certain national teams, Euro 2012 also drew the eyes of the world onto certain talented players – most the everyday fan were aware of beforehand, but a few rose to prominence during the tournament. The same principle must have applied to those loitering characters that operate in the shadows, only occasionally surfacing to tell their gaffer that they’ve spied some bona fide talent (that the You Tube generation identified a decade previous); scouts!

Following the various scouts reports to hierarchy, a number of transfers have ensued. Former ‘Super’ (I understand he was relinquished of this title by Balotelli’s 2^nd against Germany) Mario Mandzukic’s transfer to FC Bayern in a deal worth circa £8 million, the highlight of the post Euro ‘scramblies’ so far.

Fellow Croatian Modric also looks likely to move following a sound Euro 2012; having caught the eye of Real Madrid’s scouts. Modric is expected to announce his intention to swap the sodden city of London, for the ever so slightly brighter Madrid, to new boss AVB within the next few days. This transfer will bring estranged partners Mr Mourinho and his protégée AVB back into contact - for the sake of the kids I hope the transfer doesn’t push them further apart. On the field, Luka Modric will add further invention to Real’s already crafty midfield of Alonso, Kaka, Ozil and Granero.

(Look-a-likes - Mourinho (left) & AVB (right))

Mr Mourinho’s philosophy of flooding the side with creative players, then playing defense first football, seems to be shared by Mr Di Matteo at Chelsea. Having wrapped up the signatures of Marin and Hazard, to add to the serving Mata and Lampard, Chelsea have now seen numerous bids for like minded players rejected – the latest flirtation being with another young German, Andre Schurrle. Looking at recent history, the fee, though undisclosed, is likely to be in the region of £400bn + costs.

Meanwhile, Manchester United have been busy distancing themselves from the cynical accusations that Kagawa’s signing is merely as the token merchandise salesmen for the ever growing Asian market; by immediately going ahead with the sale of their other Asian asset, floppy haired, work-aholic, Park Ji-Sung. The South Korean legend joins Mark Hughes’ tepid revolution at Queens Park Rangers.

And finally, the worryingly gangly midfield shooting ace Sigurdsson, has made his loan move to Swansea permanent... wait, sorry, he nearly did; but he’s actually decided to follow his previous boss Brendan Rogers to the home of the Beatles and car robbery; Liverpool. Oh, I’m hearing he hasn’t done that either... it’ll be Tottenham Hotspur for Sigurdsson next season! Unless a newer, more fashionable, model comes along before August 31...  

BC

@BobbyCowsill

FB GROUP - 'if that had gone in it would have been a goal'