EPL - Relegation Candidates

(It's just been announced that the BBC have commissioned a further series of  Dancing on Ice)

As things stand, teams which receive the fewest points suffer the dejection of relegation to the Championship (the obvious name for the 2^nd tier of English league football)... and worse still, the subsequent trip to Millwall. It's worth noting that the relegation phenomena is likely to become extinct in due course - probably following consultation with some wishy-washy, parent & teacher society types, that hold more sway than good old fashioned common sense, and who feel that the effect of public failure on young, Ferrari driving, Miss World fondling, males is too great. For the time being however, let's embrace relegation (like Leeds United fans have) and discuss the likely candidates: -

WEST HAM UNITED
Literally nobody's favourite cheeky cockneys have returned to the top flight following a variable season in the 2nd tier; this time under the guidance of the equally popular, unusually christened, pass & move repellent, Big-Sam Allardyce. The Hammers bring with them a proud history of football related mischief, and on the rare occasions football actually breaks out, a track record of exciting and/or legendary players; think Bobby Moore, Trevor Brooking and Paulo di Canio

To carry the mantle for the next generation, Big-Sam has added the likes of Jarvis, Benayoun, and of course Andy Carroll, to a playing staff already containing Kevin Nolan and 'goal of the season' contender Matty Taylor. With this calibre of player on board, a proven Premier League manager at the helm, and that ruddy 'blowing bubbles' song ringing round the compact Boleyn Ground, I'm sure West Ham will have enough to establish themselves as a Premiership club once more.

If all else fails, Hammers fans can soften the blow with hospitality 'Wilson Pickets', and ten 'Richard Gere's' with celebrity fan Ray Winstone, or Russell Brand, or Ross Kemp, or Lee Hurst, or Danny Dyer, or John Cleese, or James Corden, or Richard E Grant, or Billy Bragg... that's a supporters club party I must attend!

NORWICH CITY

Despite being the epitome of the domestic goddess, Delia has lost her man to some lowly has been, from the not so prosperous Aston area of Birmingham. Lambert's now rumoured to be chomping down on a reheated Tikka-Masala; a bitter blow to Delia no doubt. The man drafted in to lift Delia's melancholy, the popular but largely unproven Chris Hughton... or at least he's popular for now; it won’t last if City lose 5- 0 to another mid table side as they did on opening day.

Their second clash was an intriguing affair against QPR; and it must be said neither side looked Premiership quality on the back of heavy first game defeats. The final score was a goal a piece and in all honesty both sets of fans were relived just to get their points tally off the mark.

A late equaliser by the fabulously named Snodgrass, an off season acquisition from (dirty) Leeds United, salvaged Norwich's most credible result of the 2012/2013 season so far - a one all draw with a much changed Tottenham Hotspur.

Given these inconsistent results and the infantile position of the season, it's difficult to predict Norwich's final league position; however the common belief is they're likely candidates for the relegation dog-fight. Personally, I am concerned by their lack of fire-power, and also by the onset of '2nd season syndrome'. A squad of now seasoned Premier League players, should, in theory, generate improved performances, but without the excitement of last term, and the momentum carried forward from promotion, they may struggle to reproduce at the same level... especially given the aforementioned exit of manager Paul Lambert.

WIGAN ATHLETIC

Martinez is STILL the manager of the Latics, despite having to install a PO Box address specifically for job offers. Given the teams that he has reportedly turned down in the last couple of years, it can be concluded that he either adores pastry imprisoned meat, or he's holding out for the Real Madrid job. Either way, someone's loss is most definitely Wigan's gain.

Wigan embark on this new campaign without a number of historically influential figures: Rodallega, Diame, and most notably Moses, have all departed for pastures new; with Kone brought in to address the forward shortage.

Not surprisingly then, the Latics start to the season has been underwhelming, the highlight a characteristic win against fellow strugglers Southampton; 2 - 0 the final score. And it's this ability to get results at the right time, cast your mind back to giant killings against Manchester United and Liverpool at the tail end of last term, that I predict will propel Wigan Athletic to survive again... watch for a 6 - 5 home win against Villa on the last day of the season, and survival on goals scored... cue the inevitable pitch invasion, in which some enormous fan wearing his team's shirt like a boob-tube falls flat on his face negotiating the advertising hoards; and Martinez gets lifted on high by the invading fans, before being presented with the dishonour of 'Freedom of the borough of Wigan'.

QUEENS PARK RANGERS

It doesn’t seem to matter who takes to the pitch in QPR colours, their results are erratic. Afterall, their personnel turnover is rivaled in history only by that of the Red Army in WWII, yet the club's results have not reached any sort of equilibrium.

This characteristic has generated a side that is often a treat to behold, given the number of goals they score, and the lorry loads that they ship at the other end. But it's this fragility mentally that worries me (and worries the purists (whoever they are!?)). Clearly signings such as Julio Cesar, Park Ji-Sung, Esteban Granero, and Jose Bosingwa add much needed quality and experience but I fear the mid- 2000's may phone at any moment and ask for their players back.

In addition, can players such as these reproduce the top performances QPR desire after taking such obvious backward career steps? Cesar was previously at Inter, Park at Manchester United, Granero at Real Madrid, and Bosingwa at Chelsea; yet they must now train as hard (if not harder given their age), and be as committed on the pitch, when the goals are no longer major trophies but narrow wins against the Premiership's lesser sides.

Given the above, I estimate QPR will survive by a whisker, on the back of their new stars' professional pride... but nothing at QPR would surprise me! (except a run of steady 1 - 0 wins)

ASTON VILLA

Following a dire campaign in 2011/2012 which saw the Villans finish 16^th, score a miserly 37 goals, and bore anyone who saw them into a vegetative state, it was no surprise to see the anti-footballing Mr McLeish replaced by the considerably more adventurous Paul Lambert. Lambert must have felt given the historic status of the Birmingham based club, the vast support, and the frugality of the previous season, that he was on to a sure thing...

Four games in, and two defeats later, the enormity of the job in hand must now be all too apparent. Having lost the curtain raiser to West Ham by the odd goal, they were then comprehensively thrashed by an in form Everton outfit at the end of August. September's fixture against last year's surprise package, Newcastle United, will have made the international break that bit more relaxing for Lambert; and their recent win over little Barcelona (Swansea) has eased pressure further.

But... The squad, despite suffering with injuries/illness (get well soon Stan), looks weak throughout; and unless reinforcements can be found, it could be another eye-sore of a season at Villa Park.  It will be surreal to see a top-flight bereft of former European Cup winners Villa, but I do fear this could be their farewell tour. I watched them on numerous occasions last season, and I can honestly say they were the most gutless side in the league; and as the table portrays, fortunate to avoid the drop. Unless Lambert can find some of the magic that propelled Norwich to safety in 2012, I just can't see this squad turning it round... especially without Emile Heskey!

READING

Sporting a pair of uncompromising centre forwards (Pogrebnyak & Roberts), and more importantly, a rather dashing kit, Reading fans have every right to be hopeful about survival.

The problem is, no side in the history of the league has stayed up or bagged silverware on the grounds of aesthetics, (Tevez simply wouldn't win a thing) or mindless optimism.

The league table, as it stands, reflects the above; Reading sit 19th and are yet to win a game, despite what really is a handsome jersey. In the Royals defense their start has been a tough one; commencing with games against Stoke, Chelsea, and Tottenham; and they have also played a game less than the teams around them.

Despite this, and despite the aforementioned pairing of Pogrebnyak and veteran Roberts (I was at his 50th celebration last January), my gut instinct is they'll be back in the Championship in 2013/14... note to self, must get my hands on one of those shirts.

SOUTHAMPTON

It’s great to see the Saints return to the top division, though it is bit of a shame they aren't playing at the battered up old shed they called 'The Dell' anymore. Just the name gets football fans all misty eyed these days; reminiscing of goal machine Ostenstad, part-time nose farmer Le Tissier, and obviously Ali Dia (http://www.heavensports.com/football/curious-case-ali-dia/)... not forgetting 6-3; grey strips; and Souness' moustache.

Promoted sides usually carry momentum, and to a certain extent Southampton have; sterling performances against the two Manchester giants evidence of this. But unfortunately they have no points to show for their efforts. More worryingly though, have been displays and results, against Wigan, and latterly, a pasting at the hands of Arsenal. They desperately need that first home win if they are to turn things around, and Saturday's game against Aston Villa could be crucial.

It shouldn't be ignored that they have excellent infrastructure and some quality individuals (Ramirez, Lallana, Lambert), but unfortunately for Saints fans, their demotion to The Championship is the most predictable event since child star Lindsay Lohan went off the rails and wound up on the pages of Playboy... how we all eagerly anticipate the meltdown of 'The Saturdays'.


Here is the foot of the table as I predict it will look come the end of May: -

14	West Ham United
15	Norwich City
16	Wigan Athletic
17	Queens Park Rangers
18	Aston Villa
19	Reading
20	Southampton

*Please note, Liverpool probably should be in there somewhere..

Thanks for reading

BC

@BobbyCowsill

Facebook group, "if that had gone in it would have been a goal"

http://www.facebook.com/groups/262906063816351/

Please share and provide comments... or abuse.

PREMIERSHIP 2012/13 - A Forecast

The start to the 2012/2013 Premiership season has begun in the same surprising vein as the Olympics departed in – the epic hype, an escalating budget, and the weather forecast predicting doomsday levels of precipitation; somehow producing an Olympics which was, well... superb (how very un-British! We’re far more comfortable when things are just a little bit crap (see British Leyland)).

With this in mind, followers of certain clubs will certainly be feeling content with their inauguration; the likes of QPR and Norwich both slumping to heavy opening day defeats. Conversely Swansea City fans will be rather embarrassed by their start... how crass it is to win in such style.

Having studied the prospective squads, and taken account of the differing fortunes of the competing entities thus far, I have formulated my prediction for the coming season and my rationale behind the irrational.

      

Here's how the top of the table could have turned out (until I predicted it) (the rest of the table can be found in my subsequent blogs so keep an eye out for your side) : -

Position	Club
C	Manchester City
2	Manchester United
3	Chelsea
4	Liverpool
5	Arsenal
6	Everton
7	Tottenham Hotspur
8	Newcastle United

MANCHESTER CITY

Roberto Mancini may have an English vocabulary comparative to Tinky-Winky, but he’s certainly grasped the English art of moaning; most of his summer frustration aimed at Sporting Director, Brian Marwood, over the lack of transfer activity - Marwood proving a rather safer target than chairman, and signatory, Khaldoon al Mubarak.

Despite the whinging, City have a wealth of talent; the confidence that comes from being incumbent champions; and have still spent in excess of £10m on Jack Rodwell. In addition, there were further acquisitions on transfer deadline day; including, Fiorentina’s Nastasic, and the completion of Scott Sinclair’s protracted transfer from Swansea. The picturesque Carlos Tevez has also returned to Manchester (once the air-stewardess and Zabaleta finally persuaded him to get up out of his seat) and has started superbly; picking up the opener in City’s tussle with Southampton, and the equaliser against Liverpool last weekend.

With all these factors in mind, it’s difficult to see past City in the 2012/2013 race for the title... The strength in depth and ability to spend in January if required, meaning that City will doubtless be the bookies favourites.

Their rivals will be focusing on their weaknesses though – City’s play can be rather one dimensional at times; narrow and patient, yet there were times last season when City fans were crying out for plan b (though I’m not 100% sure what his unique amalgamation of song and rap could have done to influence events). The departure of Adam Johnson to Sunderland could possibly highlight the lack of natural width further, as well as highlight Mancini’s single minded approach.

MANCHESTER UNITED

Manchester City’s rivals from just across the Atlantic could well prove to be their sternest on field test. The Manchester Red Devils have added to last year’s roster by drafting offenseman RVP (as their Designated Player (probably)), quarterback Kagawa, cornerback Buttner, and rookies Powell and Henriquez.

At certain stages of last season, Rooney’s points (goals and assists) carried United, and winningest Head Coach, Sir Alex Ferguson, will be hoping that Van Persie can ease this burden by repeating the stats that saw him earn the “Rocket” Richard Trophy in the 2011/2012 season. 

In addition, Kagawa can not only sell condominiums full of jerseys in the Far East (site of a great US victory between 1955 & 1975), he has also proved in pre-season that he has an eye for a pass; and therefore that he could be the creative spark in the neutral zone that United have missed in the past few seasons.

Kagawa got his full debut as The Reds went 0 & 1 in a disappointing opening match-up with the Toffees; a soccer match dominated by Fellaini. The Reds did recover against Full-Ham however, and new signings RVP and Kagawa netted in a 3 to 2 win; RVP’s dunk an awesome volley from just inside the 18 yard line. The win was however marred by a bogus injury to strong-arm centre, Rooney. 3 league points so far but more to come...

After all, United struggled in certain regular season fixtures last year, as well as all 4 knock-out trophies; and this was at least in part due to lacking the marquee names in the first line - no one doubted the squad as a whole, but the 1st team didn't match-up against some of their rivals. It’s clear though that RVP and Kagawa strengthen that team sheet substantially; and with the rookies to bed in, defensive lineman Ferdinand and Evans to return, United are almost certain to improve. Expect to see Fergie’s men in league contention right up to the wire... before 2 overtime markers deny them. O-M-G, enough already!

CHELSEA

If you’re an expensive foreign footballer, you’ve been linked with and/or signed for Chelsea during the summer break: - Hulk, a pair of Hazards, Schurrle, Dempsey, Azpilicueta, Van Der Wiel, Falcao, Marin, Oscar... Santi Munez. Which of these names has actually signed on the dotted line is known only by Mr Abramovich; we can safely assume Roberto Di Matteo had nothing to do with it.

I have seen Eden Hazard run out for Chelsea though, and very impressive he has been too – directly contributing to 5 of Chelsea’s 8 goals so far this season – leading to whispers around the Bridge that only Eden Hazard’s ego is greater than his ability.

Despite huge concerns over the lack of options at centre forward following the departures of Drogba and Lukaku, a factor that I predict will prevent them actually winning the title this season, their squad does look strong and therefore they can’t be written off entirely.

 In addition, their ploy of playing more games than all the other Premier League teams looks on paper to be bomb-proof; they already find themselves 3 points clear having implemented this.

LIVERPOOL
Former football team Liverpool, have once again changed their management in the hope that their mediocre squad miraculously grow perms and tashes, slip into some tiny shorts, and relive the 80’s. Brendan Rodgers the latest man through the revolving door at Anfield; an alarming choice of entrance given the area’s reputation.

Having started abysmally against West Brom; losing 3 nil! Rodgers’ philosophy of ticky-tacky football was far more evident against City last weekend. Obviously their display was no Barcelona or Swansea, but the performances of Joe Allen and Raheem Sterling will be very encouraging to the scouse faithful.

Unfortunately however, the change of mind-set was also Liverpool’s eventual downfall against City; Skrtel gifting a back-pass to the lovable Tevez when attempting to retain possession.

IF Rodgers can instil his beliefs into the playing staff, Liverpool fans can expect to see some entertaining football at Anfield this year; and finally see some better results. I personally think they’re some way adrift of the aforementioned 3 outfits and are therefore locked in a battle for that precious 4^th place spot and Champions League qualification - especially given the lack of players into the club this summer, when compared to the exodus out.

It's likely to be a ‘do or die’ season for Liverpool, expect to see them either riding high or in no-mans land. Personally, I anticipate them shaking off their poor recent form and excelling under Rodgers' guidance... just not this year.

ARSENAL

Returning to my theory that Brits are happiest when things are mediocre, there must be every chance that Arsenal fans are the most content individuals in the country. After a somewhat lacklustre performance against Sunderland on the opening day, in which they created very little, Wenger’s much changed outfit took the Megabus (there are other bus services available) to Stoke-on-Trent. The outcome of their 2^nd fixture was a similarly flat performance. In fact the majority of the action was on the terraces, where t-shirts had been printed up by Stoke City fans mocking the Arsenal boss, and sporadically throughout the 90 minutes both sets of fans did the ‘Wenger’ – an exaggerated shrug/arm wave that is sure to be a dance-floor sensation. 

So, two games into the new season and two nil-nil draws against mid table sides; hardly top 4 form. There are positives for Wenger to take though; defending has become Arsenal’s Achilles Heel over the past few seasons, yet the usually fragile back five have yet to concede a goal. In addition, new boy Santi Cazorla has been very tidy in possession, as you’d expect from a Spanish attacking midfielder, and given time to gel with the other new bodies around him, could prove to be Arsenal’s pivotal player.

It cannot go unmentioned however, that Arsenal have allowed another key figure to leave the dressing room. Following the departures of Adebayor, Toure, Clichy, and Nasri to Premiership rivals; and Fabrgas and Song to Barcelona; last season’s top marksman Van Persie has now said a frosty farewell to the Emirates and signed for Manchester United - If the opening games are anything to go by, RVP will be much missed... Giroud. Donkey. Arse. Banjo... spring to mind.

The lack of goal threat, and the general slump in club morale, is the reason I feel Arsenal will finally miss out on Champions League qualification this season - following on-field failure expect to see Arsenal Holdings PLC employ numerous overpaid consultants before deciding there's more money to be made in other market sectors.

EVERTON

True to form The Toffees have had a slow start to the new season; taking a full 57 minutes to find the back of United’s net in a 1- 0 win - The scorer, 8’ 5” Side Show Bob doppelganger, Marouane Fellaini.  The result was no more than Everton deserved from a dogged, well organised display in which the aforementioned Fellaini tormented the Red Devils.

This form was then carried into last weekend’s game at Villa Park, in which Moyes’ men took apart a hapless Aston Villa. Evertonians could barely believe their eyes as their side cruised to a 3 goal advantage at half time; the pick of the goals a ‘worldy’ (appealing to the lowest common denominator there) from Pienaar. So impressive was the first half performance that the usually dower David Moyes pointed out to the BBC that, “I don’t think you’ll have enough viewing time to show all the chances [that were created in the first half]”. 

With Fellaini in such rampant form, Pienaar reinstalled on a permanent basis, and a number of 11th hour deals on deadline day, things are looking rosy in the blue corner of Stanley Park. In addition, the possible resolution of a long standing centre forward scarcity means for the first time since Cadamarteri, Jeffers, Ferguson, and Madar, Everton commence the season with a number of available and/or quality centre forwards at the club; see Jelavic, Naismith, Miralles, Vellios, and Anichebe (I must stress the “available and/or quality”).

I have predicted a final position of 6^th but given the scouser’s ‘form’ there’s every chance they’ll steal a position higher up.

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

Player’s Manager of the Year nominee Andre Villas Boas has taken over the Tottenham reins from the squeaky clean, Droopy the Dog impersonator ‘Arry Redknapp. Unfortunately for AVB, the team’s inauspicious start has already forced hoards of fans onto the phone-in’s to question Mr Levy’s pick.

The opener was a 2 – 1 defeat at the hands of Les Geordies, and game 2 a goalless home draw with an un-fancied WBA side.

In spite of these flat results, and the concerns of numerous fans about Modric’s departure and AVB’s arrival, I believe like last year Spurs will again push hard but probably finish just shy of Champions League qualification. Multiple deals on the final day, including the purchase of Lloris, and Dempsey (proven international players), can only solidify Spurs as a top 4 chasing side, but I'm afraid I too remain unconvinced by AVB’s management style. An essential part of modern club management entails the motivation, and extraction of respect from, the overpaid egomaniacs that call themselves the playing staff (despite the fact the majority never play and thus have yet to achieve anything in life); however, I’m dubious of AVB’s ability to shine in this department (see Chelsea). He may well have an astute knowledge of international football and tactics, but will he provide the right guidance to propel Spurs? I doubt it...

NEWCASTLE UNITED

Given that magpies are so partial to shiny objects, Newcastle have been alarmingly profligate; their last piece of silverware the Fairs Cup in 1969. Despite a sterling performance last season and a solid start to this; a 2 - 1 home win against fellow 4th place aspirer's Tottenham Hotspur the highlight; it's a certainty that Newcastle United will be without the illusive league title for a further year.

This comment is however worthless, as Pardew's Foreign Legion will be aiming for European qualification primarily; with potential for success in a domestic cup competition.

The squad has been strengthened slightly by the acquisitions of Anita et al; but their great transfer success has been the retention of Ba, Tiote, Cisse and  Coloccini. Though Cisse is unlikely to repeat his stunning form of last season, there is no doubt that in their two Senegalese forwards Newcastle have two of the best in the business. The aforementioned names will surely fire the Magpies to another respectable season; though I predict the wave of momentum that carried them to near Champions League qualification will not be repeated this term.

Thanks for reading

BC

@BobbyCowsill

Facebook group, "if that had gone in it would have been a goal"

http://www.facebook.com/groups/262906063816351/

Please share and provide comments... or abuse.