Diving, Simulation, Schwalbe...

(possibly a misleading picture given that this is how homo sapiens fall naturally)

Diving: it's a highly regarded national obsession during the Olympics in August, yet as soon as the football season kicks off a week or so later, there's national disparagement... no wonder certain Premier League amoebae are confused.

The consensus amongst the UK public (or so The Sun says) has always been that diving, as well as other disgraceful facets of the modern game such as passing, defending, and finishing, was imported by the influx of foreign players into the national game; and that occurrences still concentrate around certain nationalities. I appreciate that this is true to an extent *cough, cough, Portugal cough, cough*, but before we get all high and mighty and begin harping on about The Empire, recent events indicate that the plague has spread; PG Tips promoter Gareth Bale, penalty extraordinaire Ashley Young, and Bambi impersonator Danny Welbeck, all involved in high profile cases of alleged cheating. Furthermore, former footballer Michael Owen (some of you may remember him) has openly admitted going to ground easily on two separate occasions. In his recent interview, Owen states that, "I have been guilty [of going to ground] as well. I played at the 1998 World Cup [for England] against Argentina and I was running flat out, got a nudge, went down. Could I have stayed up? Probably". In addition, Owen remarks on the adjacent World Cup of 2002, saying, "Then four years later Collina gave me a penalty against Argentina. Again, I could have stayed on my feet".

(I hope and pray I will be too)

I doubt in light of Owen's comments that he will be vilified in South America the same way Simeone was in the English segment of the UK, following THE Beckham incident; yet the respective crimes are comparable. Moreover, I don't expect any major national out pour of emotion, or any overzealous headlines (see right for an example), following Owen's revelations; especially given the importance of the resulting goals to the English population... cue xenophobic chanting.

And it's the double standard that these Owen admissions evidence, that has marred the clean up campaign. The BBC write up, attached below, praises Owen and revels in the national team's result. Perhaps if the fans, press, and associated players, turned against the offender rather than congratulating him, or refused to celebrate any subsequent penalty conversion, then diving would soon be irradiated. But can you really imagine this happening? After all, a hollow victory is still a victory! (Ask any Celtic fan in May 2013 OR see Liverpool vs Chelsea, Champions League 2005).

Given what's at stake, both financially and in terms of accolade, the pressures to achieve at any cost are mounting. The difference between success and failure is minuscule, and any competitive advantage that can be gained may result in disproportional benefit. Reverting to Owen's exposure (which has nothing on Erica Roe's), the attached article highlights the importance of the result that his 'dive' generated: - http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport3/worldcup2002/hi/matches_wallchart/argentina_v_england/default.stm

If players are being externally influenced, then responsibility must rest on the club officials and football's governing bodies to stamp out the phenomena. Referees are clearly the first line of defence, but given that professional football is played at such an intense pace, by full time athletes, largely in their 20's, it is no surprise that referees, who are one Harley Davidson away from a mid-life crisis, make occasional (frequent) mistakes.

To be fair, the standard of refereeing in the top flight of the English game is generally high. HOWEVER there is still blame to be apportioned to the on-field officials; after all, by their very nature, dives are supposed to be seen by the officials (as amusing as it would be, there aren't going to be many off-the-ball dives), and yet time and again the wrong assessments are made.

I am not going to concentrate on these incorrect decisions in this blog though; as aforementioned, in real time, the incidents can be indistinct. What I do wish to touch on however, is the tendency to award free-kicks or penalties only in the event a player hits the turf. Conversely, it's the failure to punish the offence when a player stays on his feet, what we now call "being too honest", that may have progressed the issue of diving further. Simply put, it's a natural succession for players that believe they must go to ground, to fall if they feel impeded; or even to anticipate the contact and throw themselves (see left).

(Replays subsequently showed that
a blade of grass had been left uncut)

It may therefore be advantageous in the fight against 'simulation' to implement the advantage rule in a fashion similar to that of rugby (better known as 'egg-chasing' - for those overseas: it's like American Football only for men). The rugby model allows play to develop following an infringement, and should no significant advantage be gained, then affairs are pulled back for the original offence. In this instance, the incentive is always for players to stay on their feet and seek an end product; knowing full well that any subsequent failure will bring play back - thus effectively giving the player two chances. Again, pressure will fall on a referee to acknowledge the foul, despite a player maintaining his footing, as well as to interpret the rules and events correctly; but it could lead to improvements.

Though any application of new law, such as that detailed above, could be contentious, the revision of the severity of punishments for those caught diving would have mass appeal. As things stand, the offence is penalized by a free-kick to the opposition and the brandishing of a yellow card - possibly the biggest let-off since OJ Simpson (allegedly)! What's more, this proverbial slapped wrist only applies to those players that are sighted at the time!

(an 'off-the-ball' incident involving
Carlos Valderrama (oh.. apparently a very
conservative side parting...))

Many experts in the field (pun intended) have therefore suggested the use of video replay and resulting action. The referee's report and subsequent FA reviews have been instrumental in the reduction of violent offences carried out when the referee's back is turned (see right), and the scope of these responsibilities could easily be widened to incorporate simulation. Catching the offenders more regularly may curb behaviour alone, but when used in union with fitting punishment, would surely generate a beneficial outcome...

Clubs and players are no longer deterred by fines, given their financial muscle, whereas retrospective bans in line with those for violent conduct, could affect them significantly; especially given the influence a number of serial offenders have on their club sides: - the likes of Suarez, Nani, Torres, and Daley. This post match penalisation could even be extended to points deductions for repeat offenders, in an attempt to internalise the pressures further.

As a parting thought, contrary to my previous advice, and founded mainly on nostalgia; the FA/UEFA match reviews could always be scrapped entirely... The removal of these 'eyes in the sky', would allow the laws of talion to prevail once again (Don Revie could finally rest in peace); "an eye for an eye". If each team's 'Joey Barton' was able to seek retribution, either in the middle, or in the tunnel, following displays of cheating, then these 'go-down-if-someone-in-the-stand-has-flatulence merchants' would soon think twice... it worked in the 70's and 80's! In addition, the return of the good old fashioned off the ball scuffle would disperse the activity over a greater area of the pitch, thus improving allocative efficiency, and increasing entertainment in general... motion forwarded?

Clearly the statements above are simplistic overviews of a complex issue but certain facts still remain: -
1. diving in professional football is prevalent.
2. present punishments are not acting as a deterrent.
3. given the importance of football financially, culturally, and historically, cheating should not be tolerated.
4. facilities are in place to tackle the problem but they are not being utilised effectively.
5. continuous feigning of injury could cause a genuine medical issue to be overlooked.
6. there was once a footballer named Michael Owen.
7. Tom Daley's 'budgie smugglers' are far too skimpy.
It is my opinion therefore, that it is imperative the FA, in conjunction with UEFA, are proactive in eradicating this unsavoury side to the beautiful game by introducing fresh measures... (just Tweet me Mr Bernstein).

Here are a few examples of 'ALLEGED' diving for those who are completely lost (It's a mystery how Matthew McConaughey keeps getting roles when there's talent like this out there... (in fact it's a mystery full stop)): -

(Above: Gamst Pedersen)

(Above: Busquets - one of her many many offences! #BarcelonaFCmaskmyinability)

(Above: Rivaldo - Hakan Unsal, football salutes you)

(just one more time...)

Do you agree that further action is required? and if so, what would you like to see implemented? Let me know your thoughts via Twitter, Facebook or leave a message at the foot of this blog... FYI logical and irrational ideas will be treated with equal disdain.

In addition, please contribute your favourite/least favourite acts of simulation.

Thanks for reading... please share the article if you endured it.

BC
Follow me on Twitter: - @BobbyCowsill
OR join my facebook group: - http://www.facebook.com/groups/262906063816351/

The Premiership Sack Race 2012/2013

(I realise this is out of date however the designer is considerably more adept at photoshop than I am!
 - thanks whoever you are (unless you're a traffic warden or Diego Simeone))

The 2012/2013 season is still very much in its infancy and many backroom staff members will be finding their feet and/or adjusting to new surroundings...

What better time then for the chairman of the club to dust off the P45 forms (or more likely replenish the depleted stocks) and clear out the off-field personnel?  – some of which will have had no interaction with, and hence no influence what-so-ever on, the mal-practicing 1st XI (victims instead of considerably cheaper redundancy terms).

(Mr Pulis. The customary glasses
and baseball cap combo -
don't try this at home)

Though we all feel great sadness when the likes of the U-14 assistant coach gets laid off, the sole focus of this article will be the snappily dressed (Mr Pulis aside), pace-maker installed, managers of the Premier League.

With 6 games played per team (15.7894..% of the season no less!) if you’re not flying high, or your chairman is Mike Ashley, then it could be time for the chop. But who is going to win this year’s wooden spoon award for the first managerial casualty/exit through 'mutual consent'?

Here are Patrick Power’s main contenders as at 24 September 2012 (I must advise you that equally Irish bookmakers are also available): -

Nigel Adkins 3/1

Mark Hughes 4/1

Brendan Rodgers 5/1

Andre Villas-Boas 5/1

Sam Allardyce 6/1

Tony Pulis 10/1

Chris Hughton 14/1

Roberto Di Matteo 16/1

Paul Lambert 16/1

Alan Pardew 25/1

Mr Adkins

It will come as no surprise to you, that the bookmakers are rarely wrong; we've all put a 403 game accumulator bet down that looks like a sure thing, despite the bookie issuing odds of circa 7,800,000 /1... and have we won? No of course we *insert French word here* haven't! We wouldn't be sat here reading/writing this drivel if we had!

With the above in mind, Mr Adkins ought to start padding out his Curriculum Vitae with some voluntary work, and/or by retaking his cycle proficiency, because the people in 'the know' have predicted his cushy Premiership post may be about to end... it's even been muttered that ex-Portsmouth, Southampton, and Portsmouth manager 'Arry Redknapp may be in line to replace him.

As my previous release of 20 September outlined, Southampton, despite record breaking spending, are favourites for relegation - you may recall that only Lyndsey Lohan's breakdown was more widely predicted. When any side begins to struggle, as Southampton invariably will, then the manager's position comes under the spotlight. This will be accentuated further by the significant bank rolling of the Chairman Nicola Cortese in the off-season.

As you are aware, football suffers from short-termism, and though Mr Adkins has performed minor miracles to turn the organisation around in recent years, culminating in back-to-back promotions, he is by no means exempt from the 'sack race'. Neil Warnock (2012), Chris Hughton (2010) and Billy Davies (2007) will vouch for this, having all been dismissed in controversial circumstances following difficult initiations to the top tier of English football.

One to watch, especially when events unravel as quickly as they do in the sphere of football. But personally, I feel Mr Adkins is one Merseysider who won't be queuing at the Job Centre any time soon.

 Mr Hughes
It's something of a revolving door at Queens Park Rangers, with board room changes, huge turnover in the playing body, and managerial overhaul, all seen in recent seasons. Sparky may only have taken the post on 10 January this year but he's already a comparative veteran of Loftus Road; usurped only by grandfather time, Shaun Derry.

This 'easy come, easy go' mentality must be of concern to Mr Hughes in light of QPR's dismal start. To date, they have yet to win a game in 2012/2013 season, and were unceremoniously dumped out of the Capital C for Cup by Reading.

Despite the lavish overhaul of the first team, QPR's results against their peers haven't been good enough; defeat at the hands of Swansea, the aforementioned result against Reading, and a draw with Norwich, all evidence of this underachievement. The statistics speak for themselves; no club has scored less, and only Southampton conceded more, in the Premiership thus far. In Layman's terms, their defensive is leakier than an excited geriatric, and their attack only marginally less impotent.

Personally, I think Mr Hughes' days at QPR are numbered. Afterall, he has been provided with considerably more financial clout than his competitors, and has benefitted from adequate time at the helm (10 months (9 months longer than the average manager)), yet continues to struggle. Excuses about the board's ambitions, or lacking finances, are clearly not applicable; therefore it can be concluded Sparky simply isn't getting satisfactory results from a team that HE has assembled.

Mr Rodgers
If you are a Liverpool follower that promotes results as the primary objective of the manager, then I fear Mr Rodgers could be trying your patience...  yes, the philosophy of football is endearing, but there won't be many that enjoyed losing to bitter rivals United in gameweek 5; especially on such an emotional occasion. On the day, United were ponderous, unadventurous, and darn-right lucky, BUT the score goes down as 2 - 1 in the Mancunian club's favour.

(Scouse whit at it's best (watch and learn Paul O'Grady!)

In addition to the failure against United, Liverpool have suffered at the hands of Arsenal and West Brom this season, and currently find themselves 14th in the league table. Worse still, until their comprehensive victory over Norwich last weekend, they sat 18th; cue amusing graffiti (see right). It may only be early days, but the poor run Rodgers has overseen, has already put Liverpool a full 11 points adrift of table-topping Chelsea.

Liverpool traditionally give time to their manager (see the 6 years some tubby Spanish waiter was allowed), and as a result, Mr Rodgers is unlikely to be the first Premiership manager out of the door. In addition, the fans are aware that Liverpool's board failed to tie up the signatures of two players that Rodgers desperately wanted to bring in; namely, 'shoot-on-sight' merchant Sigurdsson, and the unkempt Dempsey. Fenway Sports Group's ownership is somewhat controversial at the best of times, and I can not see the justice fuelled Liverpool fans accepting Rodgers' sacking given the boardroom errors.

Rodgers then, a manager under the sort of pressure that can usually only be seen on The Crystal Maze, but not in my mind in immediate jeopardy. If results don't turn around, I'd expect to see Rodgers delving into the January sales and/or recalling Carroll... If that doesn't kick start the scousers, then Mr Rodgers probably won't preside over the full season.

Mr Villas-Boas
Comparable in opinion polls to the coalition, '2 and a half men', the films of Peter Jackson, 60's architecture, punctuation... and small pox, Mr Villas Boas is not going to win many popularity contests amongst fans; especially after the disappointing spell he had at Chelsea.

More concerning perhaps was AVB's effect upon the PFA's members during his first venture into English football. The reports that surfaced from Stamford Bridge during, and following, AVB's departure indicate that his man-management techniques were either idiosyncratic or obsolete. Accounts indicate that many of the more experienced players felt isolated, and this manifested itself in the departures of Alex and Anelka early in AVB's Chelsea reign, and also in Frank Lampard's statement in which he proclaimed that playing under AVB had "not been ideal". The constant rumours of discontent within the camp during his tenure, even reported in reputable press such as The Star, were clearly not without foundation. The concern is that this effect could carry over to the Spurs dressing-room; and The Sun's headline, "Spurs in Turmoil", cannot aid his cause.


Last weekend's win at Old Trafford, Tottenham Hotspur's first since the collapse of the Roman Empire, will have relieved the pressure on the manager a great deal, and AVB's 'drunk uncle at a wedding' celebration highlighted the significance of the achievement. With the tide turning at Spurs, Mr Villas-Boas is now looking like a long shot for the unwanted sack-race title.



Mr Allardyce

Analysing West Ham United's start to the new term you could be forgiven for thinking that Big-Sam has removed his sheepskin jacket, placed his sovereign rings on the rosewood cabinet, slipped his crushed velvet smoking jacket on, and reclined into West Ham's leopard print arm chair for the long haul. However, what you ignore at your peril is that Big-Sam's bosses are pornography magnates Gold and Sullivan; and thus equally as bumptious. Now I'm in no way insinuating that the Hammers owners are 'wide boys', but Gold's father was a convicted east-end gangster (http://theboleyninheritance.wordpress.com/2011/10/03/goldy-the-getaway-driver-and-his-75k-swag/), and Mr Sullivan did a stretch in the 1980's. What's this have to do with football I hear you ask... well, with so many egos (says Jeffrey...) all under one roof, an implosion could be lurking at any board meeting... here today, suing for unfair dismissal tomorrow. For this reason alone Mr Allardyce must be handed a disused potato sack and ushered to the start line.

Returning to on-field matters, West Ham's abysmal showing in the League Cup, a competition Mr Allardyce had suggested was winnable, could also have an effect. The Hammers were crushed 4 - 1 at Upton Park by Wigan Athletic in a performance Allardyce described as "comical" - that's the sort of masochistic mind-set that Gold & Sullivan's retail empire has thrived on the back of.

Despite this disappointing showing in the League cup, West Ham bounced back with victory against fellow relegation candidates QPR on Monday night; they now sit in a very credible 7th spot in the Premiership on 11 points.

In summary, an unlikely candidate on current form, but with the ever looming threat of a board room 'bun-fight', or the fans clamour for Paulo Di Canio to take-over, Mr Allardyce remains a candidate for dismissal.

Mr Pulis
This might seem an unlikely choice given the success that Mr Pulis has brought to Stoke City's 1st XV; but it's worth bearing in mind that Steve Kean has just been relieved of his post at Blackburn Rovers (such was his affinity with the fans that The Samaritans are rumoured to be setting up a hotline). Mr Kean's position at Rovers was generally considered bomb-proof given the success he'd brought to the club (despite the odd abusive outburst at his Director of Football & his former boss, oh, and the small matter of relegation); so to see Mr Kean "forced to resign" will have every manager including Mr Pulis looking over their shoulder.

It's been a rather dreary start to the season for the Potters too, having drawn 4 of their first 6 games; winning one and losing the other to high flying Chelsea. But it's the resoluteness that those draws convey, that consistently drives Stoke City to comfortable mid-table football; and as long as the fans and board are content with that, then Mr Pulis' job is as safe as Gordon Bank's hands. The only reason I can see that Paddy Power have included Mr Pulis, is the possible availability of Graham Henry.

The Best/Worst of the Rest

(Benwell, an affluent suburb of Newcastle -
these mansions are thought to be owned
by posh shandy-drinking Southerners)

Of the residual members of the aforementioned list, Pardew can be totally discounted having just extended his contract by an unprecedented 8 years. How many of those projected years Pardew will actually occupy will remain to be seen (I'm not sure anyone has ever stayed in the city of Newcastle for that long, and certainly not through choice), but he's guaranteed to outstay his competitors.

In addition, and despite having the fearsome Mr Abramovich as his employer, Di Matteo has brought Chelsea their illusive Champions League trophy and begun the new campaign in fine shape. I would only expect to see those with the financial nouse of an RBS investment banker to place their cash on Di Matteo to be the first Premier League manager dismissed.

Paul Lambert and his replacement at Norwich City, Chris Hughton, are also indicated in the shortlist. They are both new to their respective clubs but arrive under differing pressures. Mr Lambert takes over an underachieving Aston Villa outfit, and must burden the expectation levels of the fans; whilst Hughton must continue the great work of Lambert at Delia's Norwich City. Neither have enhanced their new surroundings thus far, and without imminent improvement, their names could soon float to the fore of the rumour pages.

- Where will you be placing your spouse's money?
- Should any other managers be considered?

Thank you for scan reading..
Please share with your enemies

BC
@BobbyCowsill
facebook group - http://www.facebook.com/groups/262906063816351/

EPL - Relegation Candidates

(It's just been announced that the BBC have commissioned a further series of  Dancing on Ice)

As things stand, teams which receive the fewest points suffer the dejection of relegation to the Championship (the obvious name for the 2^nd tier of English league football)... and worse still, the subsequent trip to Millwall. It's worth noting that the relegation phenomena is likely to become extinct in due course - probably following consultation with some wishy-washy, parent & teacher society types, that hold more sway than good old fashioned common sense, and who feel that the effect of public failure on young, Ferrari driving, Miss World fondling, males is too great. For the time being however, let's embrace relegation (like Leeds United fans have) and discuss the likely candidates: -

WEST HAM UNITED
Literally nobody's favourite cheeky cockneys have returned to the top flight following a variable season in the 2nd tier; this time under the guidance of the equally popular, unusually christened, pass & move repellent, Big-Sam Allardyce. The Hammers bring with them a proud history of football related mischief, and on the rare occasions football actually breaks out, a track record of exciting and/or legendary players; think Bobby Moore, Trevor Brooking and Paulo di Canio

To carry the mantle for the next generation, Big-Sam has added the likes of Jarvis, Benayoun, and of course Andy Carroll, to a playing staff already containing Kevin Nolan and 'goal of the season' contender Matty Taylor. With this calibre of player on board, a proven Premier League manager at the helm, and that ruddy 'blowing bubbles' song ringing round the compact Boleyn Ground, I'm sure West Ham will have enough to establish themselves as a Premiership club once more.

If all else fails, Hammers fans can soften the blow with hospitality 'Wilson Pickets', and ten 'Richard Gere's' with celebrity fan Ray Winstone, or Russell Brand, or Ross Kemp, or Lee Hurst, or Danny Dyer, or John Cleese, or James Corden, or Richard E Grant, or Billy Bragg... that's a supporters club party I must attend!

NORWICH CITY

Despite being the epitome of the domestic goddess, Delia has lost her man to some lowly has been, from the not so prosperous Aston area of Birmingham. Lambert's now rumoured to be chomping down on a reheated Tikka-Masala; a bitter blow to Delia no doubt. The man drafted in to lift Delia's melancholy, the popular but largely unproven Chris Hughton... or at least he's popular for now; it won’t last if City lose 5- 0 to another mid table side as they did on opening day.

Their second clash was an intriguing affair against QPR; and it must be said neither side looked Premiership quality on the back of heavy first game defeats. The final score was a goal a piece and in all honesty both sets of fans were relived just to get their points tally off the mark.

A late equaliser by the fabulously named Snodgrass, an off season acquisition from (dirty) Leeds United, salvaged Norwich's most credible result of the 2012/2013 season so far - a one all draw with a much changed Tottenham Hotspur.

Given these inconsistent results and the infantile position of the season, it's difficult to predict Norwich's final league position; however the common belief is they're likely candidates for the relegation dog-fight. Personally, I am concerned by their lack of fire-power, and also by the onset of '2nd season syndrome'. A squad of now seasoned Premier League players, should, in theory, generate improved performances, but without the excitement of last term, and the momentum carried forward from promotion, they may struggle to reproduce at the same level... especially given the aforementioned exit of manager Paul Lambert.

WIGAN ATHLETIC

Martinez is STILL the manager of the Latics, despite having to install a PO Box address specifically for job offers. Given the teams that he has reportedly turned down in the last couple of years, it can be concluded that he either adores pastry imprisoned meat, or he's holding out for the Real Madrid job. Either way, someone's loss is most definitely Wigan's gain.

Wigan embark on this new campaign without a number of historically influential figures: Rodallega, Diame, and most notably Moses, have all departed for pastures new; with Kone brought in to address the forward shortage.

Not surprisingly then, the Latics start to the season has been underwhelming, the highlight a characteristic win against fellow strugglers Southampton; 2 - 0 the final score. And it's this ability to get results at the right time, cast your mind back to giant killings against Manchester United and Liverpool at the tail end of last term, that I predict will propel Wigan Athletic to survive again... watch for a 6 - 5 home win against Villa on the last day of the season, and survival on goals scored... cue the inevitable pitch invasion, in which some enormous fan wearing his team's shirt like a boob-tube falls flat on his face negotiating the advertising hoards; and Martinez gets lifted on high by the invading fans, before being presented with the dishonour of 'Freedom of the borough of Wigan'.

QUEENS PARK RANGERS

It doesn’t seem to matter who takes to the pitch in QPR colours, their results are erratic. Afterall, their personnel turnover is rivaled in history only by that of the Red Army in WWII, yet the club's results have not reached any sort of equilibrium.

This characteristic has generated a side that is often a treat to behold, given the number of goals they score, and the lorry loads that they ship at the other end. But it's this fragility mentally that worries me (and worries the purists (whoever they are!?)). Clearly signings such as Julio Cesar, Park Ji-Sung, Esteban Granero, and Jose Bosingwa add much needed quality and experience but I fear the mid- 2000's may phone at any moment and ask for their players back.

In addition, can players such as these reproduce the top performances QPR desire after taking such obvious backward career steps? Cesar was previously at Inter, Park at Manchester United, Granero at Real Madrid, and Bosingwa at Chelsea; yet they must now train as hard (if not harder given their age), and be as committed on the pitch, when the goals are no longer major trophies but narrow wins against the Premiership's lesser sides.

Given the above, I estimate QPR will survive by a whisker, on the back of their new stars' professional pride... but nothing at QPR would surprise me! (except a run of steady 1 - 0 wins)

ASTON VILLA

Following a dire campaign in 2011/2012 which saw the Villans finish 16^th, score a miserly 37 goals, and bore anyone who saw them into a vegetative state, it was no surprise to see the anti-footballing Mr McLeish replaced by the considerably more adventurous Paul Lambert. Lambert must have felt given the historic status of the Birmingham based club, the vast support, and the frugality of the previous season, that he was on to a sure thing...

Four games in, and two defeats later, the enormity of the job in hand must now be all too apparent. Having lost the curtain raiser to West Ham by the odd goal, they were then comprehensively thrashed by an in form Everton outfit at the end of August. September's fixture against last year's surprise package, Newcastle United, will have made the international break that bit more relaxing for Lambert; and their recent win over little Barcelona (Swansea) has eased pressure further.

But... The squad, despite suffering with injuries/illness (get well soon Stan), looks weak throughout; and unless reinforcements can be found, it could be another eye-sore of a season at Villa Park.  It will be surreal to see a top-flight bereft of former European Cup winners Villa, but I do fear this could be their farewell tour. I watched them on numerous occasions last season, and I can honestly say they were the most gutless side in the league; and as the table portrays, fortunate to avoid the drop. Unless Lambert can find some of the magic that propelled Norwich to safety in 2012, I just can't see this squad turning it round... especially without Emile Heskey!

READING

Sporting a pair of uncompromising centre forwards (Pogrebnyak & Roberts), and more importantly, a rather dashing kit, Reading fans have every right to be hopeful about survival.

The problem is, no side in the history of the league has stayed up or bagged silverware on the grounds of aesthetics, (Tevez simply wouldn't win a thing) or mindless optimism.

The league table, as it stands, reflects the above; Reading sit 19th and are yet to win a game, despite what really is a handsome jersey. In the Royals defense their start has been a tough one; commencing with games against Stoke, Chelsea, and Tottenham; and they have also played a game less than the teams around them.

Despite this, and despite the aforementioned pairing of Pogrebnyak and veteran Roberts (I was at his 50th celebration last January), my gut instinct is they'll be back in the Championship in 2013/14... note to self, must get my hands on one of those shirts.

SOUTHAMPTON

It’s great to see the Saints return to the top division, though it is bit of a shame they aren't playing at the battered up old shed they called 'The Dell' anymore. Just the name gets football fans all misty eyed these days; reminiscing of goal machine Ostenstad, part-time nose farmer Le Tissier, and obviously Ali Dia (http://www.heavensports.com/football/curious-case-ali-dia/)... not forgetting 6-3; grey strips; and Souness' moustache.

Promoted sides usually carry momentum, and to a certain extent Southampton have; sterling performances against the two Manchester giants evidence of this. But unfortunately they have no points to show for their efforts. More worryingly though, have been displays and results, against Wigan, and latterly, a pasting at the hands of Arsenal. They desperately need that first home win if they are to turn things around, and Saturday's game against Aston Villa could be crucial.

It shouldn't be ignored that they have excellent infrastructure and some quality individuals (Ramirez, Lallana, Lambert), but unfortunately for Saints fans, their demotion to The Championship is the most predictable event since child star Lindsay Lohan went off the rails and wound up on the pages of Playboy... how we all eagerly anticipate the meltdown of 'The Saturdays'.


Here is the foot of the table as I predict it will look come the end of May: -

14	West Ham United
15	Norwich City
16	Wigan Athletic
17	Queens Park Rangers
18	Aston Villa
19	Reading
20	Southampton

*Please note, Liverpool probably should be in there somewhere..

Thanks for reading

BC

@BobbyCowsill

Facebook group, "if that had gone in it would have been a goal"

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PREMIERSHIP 2012/13 - A Forecast

The start to the 2012/2013 Premiership season has begun in the same surprising vein as the Olympics departed in – the epic hype, an escalating budget, and the weather forecast predicting doomsday levels of precipitation; somehow producing an Olympics which was, well... superb (how very un-British! We’re far more comfortable when things are just a little bit crap (see British Leyland)).

With this in mind, followers of certain clubs will certainly be feeling content with their inauguration; the likes of QPR and Norwich both slumping to heavy opening day defeats. Conversely Swansea City fans will be rather embarrassed by their start... how crass it is to win in such style.

Having studied the prospective squads, and taken account of the differing fortunes of the competing entities thus far, I have formulated my prediction for the coming season and my rationale behind the irrational.

      

Here's how the top of the table could have turned out (until I predicted it) (the rest of the table can be found in my subsequent blogs so keep an eye out for your side) : -

Position	Club
C	Manchester City
2	Manchester United
3	Chelsea
4	Liverpool
5	Arsenal
6	Everton
7	Tottenham Hotspur
8	Newcastle United

MANCHESTER CITY

Roberto Mancini may have an English vocabulary comparative to Tinky-Winky, but he’s certainly grasped the English art of moaning; most of his summer frustration aimed at Sporting Director, Brian Marwood, over the lack of transfer activity - Marwood proving a rather safer target than chairman, and signatory, Khaldoon al Mubarak.

Despite the whinging, City have a wealth of talent; the confidence that comes from being incumbent champions; and have still spent in excess of £10m on Jack Rodwell. In addition, there were further acquisitions on transfer deadline day; including, Fiorentina’s Nastasic, and the completion of Scott Sinclair’s protracted transfer from Swansea. The picturesque Carlos Tevez has also returned to Manchester (once the air-stewardess and Zabaleta finally persuaded him to get up out of his seat) and has started superbly; picking up the opener in City’s tussle with Southampton, and the equaliser against Liverpool last weekend.

With all these factors in mind, it’s difficult to see past City in the 2012/2013 race for the title... The strength in depth and ability to spend in January if required, meaning that City will doubtless be the bookies favourites.

Their rivals will be focusing on their weaknesses though – City’s play can be rather one dimensional at times; narrow and patient, yet there were times last season when City fans were crying out for plan b (though I’m not 100% sure what his unique amalgamation of song and rap could have done to influence events). The departure of Adam Johnson to Sunderland could possibly highlight the lack of natural width further, as well as highlight Mancini’s single minded approach.

MANCHESTER UNITED

Manchester City’s rivals from just across the Atlantic could well prove to be their sternest on field test. The Manchester Red Devils have added to last year’s roster by drafting offenseman RVP (as their Designated Player (probably)), quarterback Kagawa, cornerback Buttner, and rookies Powell and Henriquez.

At certain stages of last season, Rooney’s points (goals and assists) carried United, and winningest Head Coach, Sir Alex Ferguson, will be hoping that Van Persie can ease this burden by repeating the stats that saw him earn the “Rocket” Richard Trophy in the 2011/2012 season. 

In addition, Kagawa can not only sell condominiums full of jerseys in the Far East (site of a great US victory between 1955 & 1975), he has also proved in pre-season that he has an eye for a pass; and therefore that he could be the creative spark in the neutral zone that United have missed in the past few seasons.

Kagawa got his full debut as The Reds went 0 & 1 in a disappointing opening match-up with the Toffees; a soccer match dominated by Fellaini. The Reds did recover against Full-Ham however, and new signings RVP and Kagawa netted in a 3 to 2 win; RVP’s dunk an awesome volley from just inside the 18 yard line. The win was however marred by a bogus injury to strong-arm centre, Rooney. 3 league points so far but more to come...

After all, United struggled in certain regular season fixtures last year, as well as all 4 knock-out trophies; and this was at least in part due to lacking the marquee names in the first line - no one doubted the squad as a whole, but the 1st team didn't match-up against some of their rivals. It’s clear though that RVP and Kagawa strengthen that team sheet substantially; and with the rookies to bed in, defensive lineman Ferdinand and Evans to return, United are almost certain to improve. Expect to see Fergie’s men in league contention right up to the wire... before 2 overtime markers deny them. O-M-G, enough already!

CHELSEA

If you’re an expensive foreign footballer, you’ve been linked with and/or signed for Chelsea during the summer break: - Hulk, a pair of Hazards, Schurrle, Dempsey, Azpilicueta, Van Der Wiel, Falcao, Marin, Oscar... Santi Munez. Which of these names has actually signed on the dotted line is known only by Mr Abramovich; we can safely assume Roberto Di Matteo had nothing to do with it.

I have seen Eden Hazard run out for Chelsea though, and very impressive he has been too – directly contributing to 5 of Chelsea’s 8 goals so far this season – leading to whispers around the Bridge that only Eden Hazard’s ego is greater than his ability.

Despite huge concerns over the lack of options at centre forward following the departures of Drogba and Lukaku, a factor that I predict will prevent them actually winning the title this season, their squad does look strong and therefore they can’t be written off entirely.

 In addition, their ploy of playing more games than all the other Premier League teams looks on paper to be bomb-proof; they already find themselves 3 points clear having implemented this.

LIVERPOOL
Former football team Liverpool, have once again changed their management in the hope that their mediocre squad miraculously grow perms and tashes, slip into some tiny shorts, and relive the 80’s. Brendan Rodgers the latest man through the revolving door at Anfield; an alarming choice of entrance given the area’s reputation.

Having started abysmally against West Brom; losing 3 nil! Rodgers’ philosophy of ticky-tacky football was far more evident against City last weekend. Obviously their display was no Barcelona or Swansea, but the performances of Joe Allen and Raheem Sterling will be very encouraging to the scouse faithful.

Unfortunately however, the change of mind-set was also Liverpool’s eventual downfall against City; Skrtel gifting a back-pass to the lovable Tevez when attempting to retain possession.

IF Rodgers can instil his beliefs into the playing staff, Liverpool fans can expect to see some entertaining football at Anfield this year; and finally see some better results. I personally think they’re some way adrift of the aforementioned 3 outfits and are therefore locked in a battle for that precious 4^th place spot and Champions League qualification - especially given the lack of players into the club this summer, when compared to the exodus out.

It's likely to be a ‘do or die’ season for Liverpool, expect to see them either riding high or in no-mans land. Personally, I anticipate them shaking off their poor recent form and excelling under Rodgers' guidance... just not this year.

ARSENAL

Returning to my theory that Brits are happiest when things are mediocre, there must be every chance that Arsenal fans are the most content individuals in the country. After a somewhat lacklustre performance against Sunderland on the opening day, in which they created very little, Wenger’s much changed outfit took the Megabus (there are other bus services available) to Stoke-on-Trent. The outcome of their 2^nd fixture was a similarly flat performance. In fact the majority of the action was on the terraces, where t-shirts had been printed up by Stoke City fans mocking the Arsenal boss, and sporadically throughout the 90 minutes both sets of fans did the ‘Wenger’ – an exaggerated shrug/arm wave that is sure to be a dance-floor sensation. 

So, two games into the new season and two nil-nil draws against mid table sides; hardly top 4 form. There are positives for Wenger to take though; defending has become Arsenal’s Achilles Heel over the past few seasons, yet the usually fragile back five have yet to concede a goal. In addition, new boy Santi Cazorla has been very tidy in possession, as you’d expect from a Spanish attacking midfielder, and given time to gel with the other new bodies around him, could prove to be Arsenal’s pivotal player.

It cannot go unmentioned however, that Arsenal have allowed another key figure to leave the dressing room. Following the departures of Adebayor, Toure, Clichy, and Nasri to Premiership rivals; and Fabrgas and Song to Barcelona; last season’s top marksman Van Persie has now said a frosty farewell to the Emirates and signed for Manchester United - If the opening games are anything to go by, RVP will be much missed... Giroud. Donkey. Arse. Banjo... spring to mind.

The lack of goal threat, and the general slump in club morale, is the reason I feel Arsenal will finally miss out on Champions League qualification this season - following on-field failure expect to see Arsenal Holdings PLC employ numerous overpaid consultants before deciding there's more money to be made in other market sectors.

EVERTON

True to form The Toffees have had a slow start to the new season; taking a full 57 minutes to find the back of United’s net in a 1- 0 win - The scorer, 8’ 5” Side Show Bob doppelganger, Marouane Fellaini.  The result was no more than Everton deserved from a dogged, well organised display in which the aforementioned Fellaini tormented the Red Devils.

This form was then carried into last weekend’s game at Villa Park, in which Moyes’ men took apart a hapless Aston Villa. Evertonians could barely believe their eyes as their side cruised to a 3 goal advantage at half time; the pick of the goals a ‘worldy’ (appealing to the lowest common denominator there) from Pienaar. So impressive was the first half performance that the usually dower David Moyes pointed out to the BBC that, “I don’t think you’ll have enough viewing time to show all the chances [that were created in the first half]”. 

With Fellaini in such rampant form, Pienaar reinstalled on a permanent basis, and a number of 11th hour deals on deadline day, things are looking rosy in the blue corner of Stanley Park. In addition, the possible resolution of a long standing centre forward scarcity means for the first time since Cadamarteri, Jeffers, Ferguson, and Madar, Everton commence the season with a number of available and/or quality centre forwards at the club; see Jelavic, Naismith, Miralles, Vellios, and Anichebe (I must stress the “available and/or quality”).

I have predicted a final position of 6^th but given the scouser’s ‘form’ there’s every chance they’ll steal a position higher up.

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

Player’s Manager of the Year nominee Andre Villas Boas has taken over the Tottenham reins from the squeaky clean, Droopy the Dog impersonator ‘Arry Redknapp. Unfortunately for AVB, the team’s inauspicious start has already forced hoards of fans onto the phone-in’s to question Mr Levy’s pick.

The opener was a 2 – 1 defeat at the hands of Les Geordies, and game 2 a goalless home draw with an un-fancied WBA side.

In spite of these flat results, and the concerns of numerous fans about Modric’s departure and AVB’s arrival, I believe like last year Spurs will again push hard but probably finish just shy of Champions League qualification. Multiple deals on the final day, including the purchase of Lloris, and Dempsey (proven international players), can only solidify Spurs as a top 4 chasing side, but I'm afraid I too remain unconvinced by AVB’s management style. An essential part of modern club management entails the motivation, and extraction of respect from, the overpaid egomaniacs that call themselves the playing staff (despite the fact the majority never play and thus have yet to achieve anything in life); however, I’m dubious of AVB’s ability to shine in this department (see Chelsea). He may well have an astute knowledge of international football and tactics, but will he provide the right guidance to propel Spurs? I doubt it...

NEWCASTLE UNITED

Given that magpies are so partial to shiny objects, Newcastle have been alarmingly profligate; their last piece of silverware the Fairs Cup in 1969. Despite a sterling performance last season and a solid start to this; a 2 - 1 home win against fellow 4th place aspirer's Tottenham Hotspur the highlight; it's a certainty that Newcastle United will be without the illusive league title for a further year.

This comment is however worthless, as Pardew's Foreign Legion will be aiming for European qualification primarily; with potential for success in a domestic cup competition.

The squad has been strengthened slightly by the acquisitions of Anita et al; but their great transfer success has been the retention of Ba, Tiote, Cisse and  Coloccini. Though Cisse is unlikely to repeat his stunning form of last season, there is no doubt that in their two Senegalese forwards Newcastle have two of the best in the business. The aforementioned names will surely fire the Magpies to another respectable season; though I predict the wave of momentum that carried them to near Champions League qualification will not be repeated this term.

Thanks for reading

BC

@BobbyCowsill

Facebook group, "if that had gone in it would have been a goal"

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RVP - "should I stay, or should I go now"

(Mock applause for Arsenal's transfer policy)

The football world is once again transfixed by the latest instalment of “Arsenal and the Adventures of the Prudent Accounting Model”. Having allowed the inevitable transfers of Messrs Nasri and Fabregas to rumble on and on (and Ariston) during the summer of 2011, it appears that Wenger and his cost-conscious colleagues have also allowed the Van Persie situation to evolve into something of a saga.

RVP, having first robbed poor Rendezvous Point of his acronym, then proceeded to concrete his reputation for mischief by announcing to the world that he had no intention of renewing his contract with The Arsenal... saying instead, “[it has] become clear to me that we, in many aspects, disagree on the way Arsenal FC should move forward”.

With their star striker’s contract due to expire in the summer of 2013, Arsenal are now, somewhat fittingly, starring down the barrel. Do they retain their prized asset at the detriment of their finances, or off-load him and risk a supporter’s backlash.

You may recall that during Arsenal’s pre-season tour of 2011, Wenger announced to the global media with some aplomb, that, “we want to keep Cesc and I will fight as hard as I can to keep him. Samir Nasri is exactly the same. We will do everything we can to keep him. I'm confident we can get both of them to stay”. The motivation behind such a bold statement was obviously two-fold; retain the services of his star men OR portray the clubs strong stance in order to drive the highest price.

The statement however served to disrupt Nasri and Fabregas further and their subsequent dissent weakened Arsenal’s stance...  Fabregas eventually completed his much anticipated move to long ball merchants Barcelona on the eve of the new season (15 August 2011); whilst Nasri’s move was finally completed just days before the deadline. Wenger, like a scorned teenager, proclaiming on Nasri’s departure that “he [Nasri] still loved the club” but moved solely for money... presumably followed by “I didn’t like him anyway”.

Both Fabregas and Nasri then, despite Arsenal’s vocal claims, eventually engineered their respective moves away. It’s worth noting that Arsenal were so unsettled during this period of protracted negotiations that they failed to win any of their August Premiership  games - the headline grabber an 8-1 capitulation at the hands of Manchester United.

With similarities developing between 2011 and 2012, it may well be that Van Persie is also confident that his desired move will materialize. If so, perhaps this explains why the possible transfer to once bitter rivals Manchester United has become so public, and also why RVP cut such a subdued figure on his return to Arsenal's Cologne training camp.

Sir Alex Ferguson, manager of the small remaining English franchise of Manchester United Inc., stated this week, with regards to his ongoing pursuit of RVP,- that, “It’s difficult to say why they [Arsenal] are operating in this way” - a sentiment I think a number of analysts share. Clearly it’s understandable why Arsene Wenger (once arch enemy of Sir Alex, now pitied by him) is reluctant to sell to a traditional foe like United or to 'parent club' City; but to run the risk of a fiasco like 2011 seems suicidal... especially when you review the panic purchases Wenger made on the approach to deadline day: -

(Lonesome George - RIP)

·         Per Mertesaker - The man who moves slower than Lonesome George, tectonic plates, and even some Australian athletes.

·         Yossi Benayoun -  The lank haired, lank limbed former Liverpool and Chelsea substitute.

·         Andre Santos - who!? Part-time full back, part-time nomad.

·         Park-Chu Young – went on to play 1 game for Arsenal in 2011/2012

·         Mikel Arteta – a good player, but prehaps a poor man’s Fabregas.

With the above in mind, it must surely be concluded that Arsenal actually intend to let RVP run down his contract and exit in 2013 (either that or Stoke fans are right, Arsene is “cracking up”)... an exercise that would sanctify the contract and perhaps serve as a lesson to all (ahem, Modric).

It will be interesting to see how events unfold, and how far RVP is willing to go to force a move... Afterall, he has endured his former teammates lifting Premiership & La Liga trophies since their departure – yet Arsenal haven’t achieved anything but a respectable balance sheet since 2005.

Do you believe RVP will still be an Arsenal player come 1 September 2012?

If not, where will RVP be registered?

BC

@BobbyCowsill

FB Group - 'If that had gone in it would have been a goal'