Thursday 20 September 2012

EPL - Relegation Candidates

(It's just been announced that the BBC have commissioned a further series of  Dancing on Ice)

As things stand, teams which receive the fewest points suffer the dejection of relegation to the Championship (the obvious name for the 2nd tier of English league football)... and worse still, the subsequent trip to Millwall. It's worth noting that the relegation phenomena is likely to become extinct in due course - probably following consultation with some wishy-washy, parent & teacher society types, that hold more sway than good old fashioned common sense, and who feel that the effect of public failure on young, Ferrari driving, Miss World fondling, males is too great. For the time being however, let's embrace relegation (like Leeds United fans have) and discuss the likely candidates: -

WEST HAM UNITED
Literally nobody's favourite cheeky cockneys have returned to the top flight following a variable season in the 2nd tier; this time under the guidance of the equally popular, unusually christened, pass & move repellent, Big-Sam Allardyce. The Hammers bring with them a proud history of football related mischief, and on the rare occasions football actually breaks out, a track record of exciting and/or legendary players; think Bobby Moore, Trevor Brooking and Paulo di Canio

To carry the mantle for the next generation, Big-Sam has added the likes of Jarvis, Benayoun, and of course Andy Carroll, to a playing staff already containing Kevin Nolan and 'goal of the season' contender Matty Taylor. With this calibre of player on board, a proven Premier League manager at the helm, and that ruddy 'blowing bubbles' song ringing round the compact Boleyn Ground, I'm sure West Ham will have enough to establish themselves as a Premiership club once more.

If all else fails, Hammers fans can soften the blow with hospitality 'Wilson Pickets', and ten 'Richard Gere's' with celebrity fan Ray Winstone, or Russell Brand, or Ross Kemp, or Lee Hurst, or Danny Dyer, or John Cleese, or James Corden, or Richard E Grant, or Billy Bragg... that's a supporters club party I must attend!


NORWICH CITY
Despite being the epitome of the domestic goddess, Delia has lost her man to some lowly has been, from the not so prosperous Aston area of Birmingham. Lambert's now rumoured to be chomping down on a reheated Tikka-Masala; a bitter blow to Delia no doubt. The man drafted in to lift Delia's melancholy, the popular but largely unproven Chris Hughton... or at least he's popular for now; it won’t last if City lose 5- 0 to another mid table side as they did on opening day.

Their second clash was an intriguing affair against QPR; and it must be said neither side looked Premiership quality on the back of heavy first game defeats. The final score was a goal a piece and in all honesty both sets of fans were relived just to get their points tally off the mark.

A late equaliser by the fabulously named Snodgrass, an off season acquisition from (dirty) Leeds United, salvaged Norwich's most credible result of the 2012/2013 season so far - a one all draw with a much changed Tottenham Hotspur.

Given these inconsistent results and the infantile position of the season, it's difficult to predict Norwich's final league position; however the common belief is they're likely candidates for the relegation dog-fight. Personally, I am concerned by their lack of fire-power, and also by the onset of '2nd season syndrome'. A squad of now seasoned Premier League players, should, in theory, generate improved performances, but without the excitement of last term, and the momentum carried forward from promotion, they may struggle to reproduce at the same level... especially given the aforementioned exit of manager Paul Lambert.

WIGAN ATHLETIC
Martinez is STILL the manager of the Latics, despite having to install a PO Box address specifically for job offers. Given the teams that he has reportedly turned down in the last couple of years, it can be concluded that he either adores pastry imprisoned meat, or he's holding out for the Real Madrid job. Either way, someone's loss is most definitely Wigan's gain.

Wigan embark on this new campaign without a number of historically influential figures: Rodallega, Diame, and most notably Moses, have all departed for pastures new; with Kone brought in to address the forward shortage.

Not surprisingly then, the Latics start to the season has been underwhelming, the highlight a characteristic win against fellow strugglers Southampton; 2 - 0 the final score. And it's this ability to get results at the right time, cast your mind back to giant killings against Manchester United and Liverpool at the tail end of last term, that I predict will propel Wigan Athletic to survive again... watch for a 6 - 5 home win against Villa on the last day of the season, and survival on goals scored... cue the inevitable pitch invasion, in which some enormous fan wearing his team's shirt like a boob-tube falls flat on his face negotiating the advertising hoards; and Martinez gets lifted on high by the invading fans, before being presented with the dishonour of 'Freedom of the borough of Wigan'.


QUEENS PARK RANGERS
It doesn’t seem to matter who takes to the pitch in QPR colours, their results are erratic. Afterall, their personnel turnover is rivaled in history only by that of the Red Army in WWII, yet the club's results have not reached any sort of equilibrium.

This characteristic has generated a side that is often a treat to behold, given the number of goals they score, and the lorry loads that they ship at the other end. But it's this fragility mentally that worries me (and worries the purists (whoever they are!?)). Clearly signings such as Julio Cesar, Park Ji-Sung, Esteban Granero, and Jose Bosingwa add much needed quality and experience but I fear the mid- 2000's may phone at any moment and ask for their players back.

In addition, can players such as these reproduce the top performances QPR desire after taking such obvious backward career steps? Cesar was previously at Inter, Park at Manchester United, Granero at Real Madrid, and Bosingwa at Chelsea; yet they must now train as hard (if not harder given their age), and be as committed on the pitch, when the goals are no longer major trophies but narrow wins against the Premiership's lesser sides.

Given the above, I estimate QPR will survive by a whisker, on the back of their new stars' professional pride... but nothing at QPR would surprise me! (except a run of steady 1 - 0 wins)

ASTON VILLA
Following a dire campaign in 2011/2012 which saw the Villans finish 16th, score a miserly 37 goals, and bore anyone who saw them into a vegetative state, it was no surprise to see the anti-footballing Mr McLeish replaced by the considerably more adventurous Paul Lambert. Lambert must have felt given the historic status of the Birmingham based club, the vast support, and the frugality of the previous season, that he was on to a sure thing...

Four games in, and two defeats later, the enormity of the job in hand must now be all too apparent. Having lost the curtain raiser to West Ham by the odd goal, they were then comprehensively thrashed by an in form Everton outfit at the end of August. September's fixture against last year's surprise package, Newcastle United, will have made the international break that bit more relaxing for Lambert; and their recent win over little Barcelona (Swansea) has eased pressure further.

But... The squad, despite suffering with injuries/illness (get well soon Stan), looks weak throughout; and unless reinforcements can be found, it could be another eye-sore of a season at Villa Park.  It will be surreal to see a top-flight bereft of former European Cup winners Villa, but I do fear this could be their farewell tour. I watched them on numerous occasions last season, and I can honestly say they were the most gutless side in the league; and as the table portrays, fortunate to avoid the drop. Unless Lambert can find some of the magic that propelled Norwich to safety in 2012, I just can't see this squad turning it round... especially without Emile Heskey!

READING
Sporting a pair of uncompromising centre forwards (Pogrebnyak & Roberts), and more importantly, a rather dashing kit, Reading fans have every right to be hopeful about survival.

The problem is, no side in the history of the league has stayed up or bagged silverware on the grounds of aesthetics, (Tevez simply wouldn't win a thing) or mindless optimism.

The league table, as it stands, reflects the above; Reading sit 19th and are yet to win a game, despite what really is a handsome jersey. In the Royals defense their start has been a tough one; commencing with games against Stoke, Chelsea, and Tottenham; and they have also played a game less than the teams around them.

Despite this, and despite the aforementioned pairing of Pogrebnyak and veteran Roberts (I was at his 50th celebration last January), my gut instinct is they'll be back in the Championship in 2013/14... note to self, must get my hands on one of those shirts.


SOUTHAMPTON
It’s great to see the Saints return to the top division, though it is bit of a shame they aren't playing at the battered up old shed they called 'The Dell' anymore. Just the name gets football fans all misty eyed these days; reminiscing of goal machine Ostenstad, part-time nose farmer Le Tissier, and obviously Ali Dia (http://www.heavensports.com/football/curious-case-ali-dia/)... not forgetting 6-3; grey strips; and Souness' moustache.

Promoted sides usually carry momentum, and to a certain extent Southampton have; sterling performances against the two Manchester giants evidence of this. But unfortunately they have no points to show for their efforts. More worryingly though, have been displays and results, against Wigan, and latterly, a pasting at the hands of Arsenal. They desperately need that first home win if they are to turn things around, and Saturday's game against Aston Villa could be crucial.

It shouldn't be ignored that they have excellent infrastructure and some quality individuals (Ramirez, Lallana, Lambert), but unfortunately for Saints fans, their demotion to The Championship is the most predictable event since child star Lindsay Lohan went off the rails and wound up on the pages of Playboy... how we all eagerly anticipate the meltdown of 'The Saturdays'.


Here is the foot of the table as I predict it will look come the end of May: -

14
West Ham United
15
Norwich City
16
Wigan Athletic
17
Queens Park Rangers
18
Aston Villa
19
Reading
20
Southampton

*Please note, Liverpool probably should be in there somewhere..

Thanks for reading
BC
@BobbyCowsill
Facebook group, "if that had gone in it would have been a goal"

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