PREMIERSHIP 2012/13 - A Forecast

The start to the 2012/2013 Premiership season has begun in the same surprising vein as the Olympics departed in – the epic hype, an escalating budget, and the weather forecast predicting doomsday levels of precipitation; somehow producing an Olympics which was, well... superb (how very un-British! We’re far more comfortable when things are just a little bit crap (see British Leyland)).

With this in mind, followers of certain clubs will certainly be feeling content with their inauguration; the likes of QPR and Norwich both slumping to heavy opening day defeats. Conversely Swansea City fans will be rather embarrassed by their start... how crass it is to win in such style.

Having studied the prospective squads, and taken account of the differing fortunes of the competing entities thus far, I have formulated my prediction for the coming season and my rationale behind the irrational.

      

Here's how the top of the table could have turned out (until I predicted it) (the rest of the table can be found in my subsequent blogs so keep an eye out for your side) : -

Position	Club
C	Manchester City
2	Manchester United
3	Chelsea
4	Liverpool
5	Arsenal
6	Everton
7	Tottenham Hotspur
8	Newcastle United

MANCHESTER CITY

Roberto Mancini may have an English vocabulary comparative to Tinky-Winky, but he’s certainly grasped the English art of moaning; most of his summer frustration aimed at Sporting Director, Brian Marwood, over the lack of transfer activity - Marwood proving a rather safer target than chairman, and signatory, Khaldoon al Mubarak.

Despite the whinging, City have a wealth of talent; the confidence that comes from being incumbent champions; and have still spent in excess of £10m on Jack Rodwell. In addition, there were further acquisitions on transfer deadline day; including, Fiorentina’s Nastasic, and the completion of Scott Sinclair’s protracted transfer from Swansea. The picturesque Carlos Tevez has also returned to Manchester (once the air-stewardess and Zabaleta finally persuaded him to get up out of his seat) and has started superbly; picking up the opener in City’s tussle with Southampton, and the equaliser against Liverpool last weekend.

With all these factors in mind, it’s difficult to see past City in the 2012/2013 race for the title... The strength in depth and ability to spend in January if required, meaning that City will doubtless be the bookies favourites.

Their rivals will be focusing on their weaknesses though – City’s play can be rather one dimensional at times; narrow and patient, yet there were times last season when City fans were crying out for plan b (though I’m not 100% sure what his unique amalgamation of song and rap could have done to influence events). The departure of Adam Johnson to Sunderland could possibly highlight the lack of natural width further, as well as highlight Mancini’s single minded approach.

MANCHESTER UNITED

Manchester City’s rivals from just across the Atlantic could well prove to be their sternest on field test. The Manchester Red Devils have added to last year’s roster by drafting offenseman RVP (as their Designated Player (probably)), quarterback Kagawa, cornerback Buttner, and rookies Powell and Henriquez.

At certain stages of last season, Rooney’s points (goals and assists) carried United, and winningest Head Coach, Sir Alex Ferguson, will be hoping that Van Persie can ease this burden by repeating the stats that saw him earn the “Rocket” Richard Trophy in the 2011/2012 season. 

In addition, Kagawa can not only sell condominiums full of jerseys in the Far East (site of a great US victory between 1955 & 1975), he has also proved in pre-season that he has an eye for a pass; and therefore that he could be the creative spark in the neutral zone that United have missed in the past few seasons.

Kagawa got his full debut as The Reds went 0 & 1 in a disappointing opening match-up with the Toffees; a soccer match dominated by Fellaini. The Reds did recover against Full-Ham however, and new signings RVP and Kagawa netted in a 3 to 2 win; RVP’s dunk an awesome volley from just inside the 18 yard line. The win was however marred by a bogus injury to strong-arm centre, Rooney. 3 league points so far but more to come...

After all, United struggled in certain regular season fixtures last year, as well as all 4 knock-out trophies; and this was at least in part due to lacking the marquee names in the first line - no one doubted the squad as a whole, but the 1st team didn't match-up against some of their rivals. It’s clear though that RVP and Kagawa strengthen that team sheet substantially; and with the rookies to bed in, defensive lineman Ferdinand and Evans to return, United are almost certain to improve. Expect to see Fergie’s men in league contention right up to the wire... before 2 overtime markers deny them. O-M-G, enough already!

CHELSEA

If you’re an expensive foreign footballer, you’ve been linked with and/or signed for Chelsea during the summer break: - Hulk, a pair of Hazards, Schurrle, Dempsey, Azpilicueta, Van Der Wiel, Falcao, Marin, Oscar... Santi Munez. Which of these names has actually signed on the dotted line is known only by Mr Abramovich; we can safely assume Roberto Di Matteo had nothing to do with it.

I have seen Eden Hazard run out for Chelsea though, and very impressive he has been too – directly contributing to 5 of Chelsea’s 8 goals so far this season – leading to whispers around the Bridge that only Eden Hazard’s ego is greater than his ability.

Despite huge concerns over the lack of options at centre forward following the departures of Drogba and Lukaku, a factor that I predict will prevent them actually winning the title this season, their squad does look strong and therefore they can’t be written off entirely.

 In addition, their ploy of playing more games than all the other Premier League teams looks on paper to be bomb-proof; they already find themselves 3 points clear having implemented this.

LIVERPOOL
Former football team Liverpool, have once again changed their management in the hope that their mediocre squad miraculously grow perms and tashes, slip into some tiny shorts, and relive the 80’s. Brendan Rodgers the latest man through the revolving door at Anfield; an alarming choice of entrance given the area’s reputation.

Having started abysmally against West Brom; losing 3 nil! Rodgers’ philosophy of ticky-tacky football was far more evident against City last weekend. Obviously their display was no Barcelona or Swansea, but the performances of Joe Allen and Raheem Sterling will be very encouraging to the scouse faithful.

Unfortunately however, the change of mind-set was also Liverpool’s eventual downfall against City; Skrtel gifting a back-pass to the lovable Tevez when attempting to retain possession.

IF Rodgers can instil his beliefs into the playing staff, Liverpool fans can expect to see some entertaining football at Anfield this year; and finally see some better results. I personally think they’re some way adrift of the aforementioned 3 outfits and are therefore locked in a battle for that precious 4^th place spot and Champions League qualification - especially given the lack of players into the club this summer, when compared to the exodus out.

It's likely to be a ‘do or die’ season for Liverpool, expect to see them either riding high or in no-mans land. Personally, I anticipate them shaking off their poor recent form and excelling under Rodgers' guidance... just not this year.

ARSENAL

Returning to my theory that Brits are happiest when things are mediocre, there must be every chance that Arsenal fans are the most content individuals in the country. After a somewhat lacklustre performance against Sunderland on the opening day, in which they created very little, Wenger’s much changed outfit took the Megabus (there are other bus services available) to Stoke-on-Trent. The outcome of their 2^nd fixture was a similarly flat performance. In fact the majority of the action was on the terraces, where t-shirts had been printed up by Stoke City fans mocking the Arsenal boss, and sporadically throughout the 90 minutes both sets of fans did the ‘Wenger’ – an exaggerated shrug/arm wave that is sure to be a dance-floor sensation. 

So, two games into the new season and two nil-nil draws against mid table sides; hardly top 4 form. There are positives for Wenger to take though; defending has become Arsenal’s Achilles Heel over the past few seasons, yet the usually fragile back five have yet to concede a goal. In addition, new boy Santi Cazorla has been very tidy in possession, as you’d expect from a Spanish attacking midfielder, and given time to gel with the other new bodies around him, could prove to be Arsenal’s pivotal player.

It cannot go unmentioned however, that Arsenal have allowed another key figure to leave the dressing room. Following the departures of Adebayor, Toure, Clichy, and Nasri to Premiership rivals; and Fabrgas and Song to Barcelona; last season’s top marksman Van Persie has now said a frosty farewell to the Emirates and signed for Manchester United - If the opening games are anything to go by, RVP will be much missed... Giroud. Donkey. Arse. Banjo... spring to mind.

The lack of goal threat, and the general slump in club morale, is the reason I feel Arsenal will finally miss out on Champions League qualification this season - following on-field failure expect to see Arsenal Holdings PLC employ numerous overpaid consultants before deciding there's more money to be made in other market sectors.

EVERTON

True to form The Toffees have had a slow start to the new season; taking a full 57 minutes to find the back of United’s net in a 1- 0 win - The scorer, 8’ 5” Side Show Bob doppelganger, Marouane Fellaini.  The result was no more than Everton deserved from a dogged, well organised display in which the aforementioned Fellaini tormented the Red Devils.

This form was then carried into last weekend’s game at Villa Park, in which Moyes’ men took apart a hapless Aston Villa. Evertonians could barely believe their eyes as their side cruised to a 3 goal advantage at half time; the pick of the goals a ‘worldy’ (appealing to the lowest common denominator there) from Pienaar. So impressive was the first half performance that the usually dower David Moyes pointed out to the BBC that, “I don’t think you’ll have enough viewing time to show all the chances [that were created in the first half]”. 

With Fellaini in such rampant form, Pienaar reinstalled on a permanent basis, and a number of 11th hour deals on deadline day, things are looking rosy in the blue corner of Stanley Park. In addition, the possible resolution of a long standing centre forward scarcity means for the first time since Cadamarteri, Jeffers, Ferguson, and Madar, Everton commence the season with a number of available and/or quality centre forwards at the club; see Jelavic, Naismith, Miralles, Vellios, and Anichebe (I must stress the “available and/or quality”).

I have predicted a final position of 6^th but given the scouser’s ‘form’ there’s every chance they’ll steal a position higher up.

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

Player’s Manager of the Year nominee Andre Villas Boas has taken over the Tottenham reins from the squeaky clean, Droopy the Dog impersonator ‘Arry Redknapp. Unfortunately for AVB, the team’s inauspicious start has already forced hoards of fans onto the phone-in’s to question Mr Levy’s pick.

The opener was a 2 – 1 defeat at the hands of Les Geordies, and game 2 a goalless home draw with an un-fancied WBA side.

In spite of these flat results, and the concerns of numerous fans about Modric’s departure and AVB’s arrival, I believe like last year Spurs will again push hard but probably finish just shy of Champions League qualification. Multiple deals on the final day, including the purchase of Lloris, and Dempsey (proven international players), can only solidify Spurs as a top 4 chasing side, but I'm afraid I too remain unconvinced by AVB’s management style. An essential part of modern club management entails the motivation, and extraction of respect from, the overpaid egomaniacs that call themselves the playing staff (despite the fact the majority never play and thus have yet to achieve anything in life); however, I’m dubious of AVB’s ability to shine in this department (see Chelsea). He may well have an astute knowledge of international football and tactics, but will he provide the right guidance to propel Spurs? I doubt it...

NEWCASTLE UNITED

Given that magpies are so partial to shiny objects, Newcastle have been alarmingly profligate; their last piece of silverware the Fairs Cup in 1969. Despite a sterling performance last season and a solid start to this; a 2 - 1 home win against fellow 4th place aspirer's Tottenham Hotspur the highlight; it's a certainty that Newcastle United will be without the illusive league title for a further year.

This comment is however worthless, as Pardew's Foreign Legion will be aiming for European qualification primarily; with potential for success in a domestic cup competition.

The squad has been strengthened slightly by the acquisitions of Anita et al; but their great transfer success has been the retention of Ba, Tiote, Cisse and  Coloccini. Though Cisse is unlikely to repeat his stunning form of last season, there is no doubt that in their two Senegalese forwards Newcastle have two of the best in the business. The aforementioned names will surely fire the Magpies to another respectable season; though I predict the wave of momentum that carried them to near Champions League qualification will not be repeated this term.

Thanks for reading

BC

@BobbyCowsill

Facebook group, "if that had gone in it would have been a goal"

http://www.facebook.com/groups/262906063816351/

Please share and provide comments... or abuse.